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The Gamble

The Gamble

Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election

Book - 2013
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A look at the 2012 Presidental election and why Obama won.
Publisher: Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Pres, 2013
ISBN: 9780691156880
Call Number: 324.973 Si137g
Characteristics: xviii, 331 p. : ill. ; 24 cm
Additional Contributors: Vavreck, Lynn 1968-


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voisjoe1 Jan 25, 2014

This book is for readers highly interested in the 2012 presidential election, advanced students of probability and statistics, or MBA students specilizing in Public Policy or Marketing. It contains detailed graphics of various aspects of the election, and does quite a good job of discussing the hills and valleys of the favorability ratings of the various presidential contenders. Some of the basic items I learned: 1) presidential incumbents usually start with a 3% advantage, 2) Obama started with a disadvantage of 4 to 5%, because that number would just not vote for an African-American, even if he had been Superman, and 3) The most important economic factor was if the economy was improving for the incumbant party in the last six months before the election.


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